Capital Markets with Keith Darin – March 2026

March 4, 2026

Capital Markets Outlook 2026: When Will CRE Transaction Activity Rebound?

On the Spot with Steve Williams and Keith Darin

After a year defined by uncertainty, CRE investors are asking a critical question: Is 2026 the year capital markets regain momentum?

In this episode of Capright’s On the Spot, Steve Williams sits down with Capital Markets expert Keith Darin to discuss the economic outlook, interest rate expectations, and what investors should expect for CRE transaction activity in the months ahead.

A Modest but Stabilizing Economic Backdrop

While economic growth slowed at the end of 2025, much of that weakness was tied to temporary disruption from the government’s shutdown. Entering 2026, the environment remains uncertain, but the fundamentals are more stable than many expected.

Key economic signals:

• Strong early job growth is helping support business confidence
• Economists are forecasting modest but positive economic growth throughout 2026
• The broader outlook suggests stability rather than contraction

For CRE, this type of environment typically supports gradual recovery rather than a rapid rebound.

Will CRE Transaction Volume Surge?

One of the biggest questions for investors is whether sidelined capital will quickly return to the market.

According to Keith, the answer is: not yet.

Transaction activity in early 2026 is expected to track closely with late-2025 levels, reflecting continued caution from buyers and sellers.

However, the outlook improves as the year progresses.

What could unlock more deal flow?

• Greater clarity around trade and economic policy
• Improved visibility into growth expectations
• Increased confidence in capital costs and pricing levels

If those factors begin to align, Keith expects transaction momentum to build later in 2026, potentially opening the door to a more active second half.

Interest Rates: A “Wait-and-See” Environment

For the past several years, capital markets have operated under the constant question: When will rates move?

The current consensus among economists points to rate stability in the near term.

• The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady until mid-2026
• Inflation remains sticky in the high-2% range
• Policymakers are monitoring the lagged effects of rate cuts implemented at the end of 2025

For CRE investors, this means capital costs should remain relatively stable, reducing one layer of uncertainty but not yet providing the catalyst for a surge in activity.

What This Means for CRE Investors

The capital markets story for 2026 is not about a sudden reopening of the floodgates. Instead, the year is shaping up as a period of gradual normalization.

Key takeaways:

• Expect steady but moderate transaction volume in the near term
• Focus on disciplined underwriting and realistic pricing assumptions
• Watch for improving clarity around policy and economic performance as key catalysts
• Prepare for potential acceleration in the second half of the year

In today’s environment, success will depend less on timing the market and more on being positioned to act as confidence returns.

The Role of Transparency in a Transitioning Market

As capital markets move through this period of adjustment, independent valuation and clear market insight are more important than ever. Reliable pricing, defensible assumptions, and objective analysis help investors navigate uncertainty and move forward with confidence.

At Capright, our mission remains the same: Delivering Transparency to support informed decision-making across the CRE lifecycle.

📬 Let’s Talk

At Capright, we are uniquely positioned to support institutional investors, operators, and developers navigating this evolving environment. As an independent valuation and advisory firm, we provide clarity, accuracy, and confidence, especially where the stakes are highest.

If you’d like to discuss the findings or need support with your Self-Storage valuation or strategy, reach out to: